21st century actuary’s blog

January 9, 2010

Twitter and the Actuarial Outpost: why actuaries should be interested in these and some tips

Filed under: Actuarial — Tags: — actuary21c @ 23:08

I have been on Twitter (@actuary21c)  for just over a year now and find it very useful.

Why? Please see the excellent article by Eddie Smith (@Eddie_Smith) on page 11 of  the Society of Actuaries October issue of CompAct magazine: http://soa.org/library/newsletters/compact/2009/october/com-2009-iss33.pdf

I am also finding the Actuarial Outpost (AO) increasingly useful – as stated in this previous post it really is the 500 pound gorilla in the world of actuarial discussion forums.

To register on the AO, please be aware that there are some rules that you need to follow to prevent spammers, as per the following from the AO administrator Tom Troceen (userid Tom on the AO):

If you add “THANKS TOM” to the end of any ID, it will always be approved.  If you use a work or ISP email address, you will be approved.  If you use an anonymous/free email address like aol.com, yahoo.com, gmail.com, freemail.com, it will be rejected.  We do this because spammers use these types of email addresses to spam forums, and this helps us prevent vandalism in the types of discussions you would like to join.

If you add “THANKS TOM” to the end of any ID, it will always be approved. If you use a work or ISP email address, you will be approved. If you use an anonymous/free email address like aol.com, yahoo.com, gmail.com, freemail.com, it will be rejected. We do this because spammers use these types of email addresses to spam forums, and this helps us prevent vandalism in the types of discussions you would like to join.

November 19, 2009

Institute/Faculty Consultation process so far gives impression of going through the motions

Filed under: Actuarial — Tags: , , — actuary21c @ 23:55

I said in yesterday’s blog post that I was waiting to hear how the consultation meeting (on Charter documentation) at the Institute of Actuaries in London went yesterday.  I have kept quiet for several weeks about this in the hope that the leadership would respond to points previously made, but the consultation period ends tomorrow, so if I am to comment at all, now is the time.

Although I hear that yesterday’s meeting was well conducted, what I heard about it (including that it wasn’t very well attended [only about 20 members], that those joint Council members present didn’t offer a lot of detail as to what problem the proposed new Charter was meant to solve) has I’m afraid confirmed my impression that, so far, the process has not been handled very well.  Why do I say this? (more…)

November 18, 2009

Merger consultation: waiting to hear how today’s Institute consultation meeting goes

Filed under: Actuarial — Tags: , — actuary21c @ 11:41

The Faculty and Institute of Actuaries launched a further consultation period about a month ago on the new charter documentation which had been proposed for the failed July merger.

I feel that so far, not enough account has been taken by the leadership of the detailed criticism made by David Wilkie (see here and related earlier posts) and others during the run up to the July merger vote, but will wait to hear how a consultation meeting at the Institute later today goes before making any further comments (NB the consultation period ends on Friday, 20 November).

Scientology is criminal organisation says Australian politician

Filed under: Superstition — Tags: — actuary21c @ 10:33

In another blow to the organisation that brought the alien Xenu see this article from The Australian in which funnily enough a senator named Nick Xenophon (not Xenuphon however) makes further strong criticisms of the cult founded by L Ron Hubbard, 1950s science fiction writer.

From the article:

Independent senator Nick Xenophon tabled explosive letters from former Scientology officials and staff alleging a litany of abuses, including coerced abortions, assault, imprisonment, covering up sexual abuse, embezzlement of church funds and blackmail.

Senator Xenophon, who said he had referred the allegations to police, demanded a Senate inquiry into the church. And he questioned the tax-exempt status given to the church, which he said “turns supporters into victims in its pursuit of power and wealth”.

“In my view, this is a two-faced organisation,” he told the Senate.

“There is the public face of an organisation . . . that claims to offer guidance and support to its followers and there is the private face of an organisation that abuses its followers and viciously targets its critics, and seems largely driven by paranoia.

“Scientology is not a religious organisation; it is a criminal organisation that hides behind its so-called religious belief.”

November 1, 2009

The power of the internet: preventing politicians from ignoring inconvenient evidence

Filed under: Politics — Tags: , — actuary21c @ 18:58

The recent revelation that Gordon Brown’s government are trying to prevent an independent committee of scientists from accurately reporting evidence about the relative dangers of different types of drugs is only one of several examples of misrepresentation of scientific evidence by the UK government.

At the end of 2008, the then Home Secretary (Jacqui Smith) had to apologise after selectively releasing statistics which appeared to show a reduction in knife crime.   Sir Michael Scholar, the Head of the UK Statistics Authority said:

They picked out the elements from the statistics that went along with their announcement and they didn’t publish the rest.

A more longstanding problem is that the UK government has claimed for several years that educational standards have been rising consistently, as shown by the continued rise in pass rates at both GCSE (age 16) and A level (age 18). See for example the following A level results chart below (extracted from this article): (more…)

The power of the internet: exposing religious lunacies

Filed under: Superstition — actuary21c @ 18:54

“The internet has done for Scientology. Could it rumble the Christians, too?”

The above article from the Guardian points out that, thanks to the internet, including an embarrassing indoctrination video by Tom Cruise about Scientology available (despite the organisation’s repeated attempts to suppress it) on You Tube/Gawker, Scientology is on the retreat, the organisation and four of its officials having been found guilty of fraud (to be more precise, defrauding its members) in France.  The article points out that it is time that we exposed the more established religions to similar levels of scrutiny – I could not agree more.

Two choice quotes from the article, the second referring to scientologists’ apparent belief that our destinies are at severe risk from an alien called Xenu:

In France, Scientology was found guilty of defrauding its followers after a judge effectively debunked the idea of the church’s trusty e-meter, a crude polygraph whose readings are used to encourage Scientologists to purchase everything from books to extreme sauna courses.

Naturally, one’s initial assumption is that the everlasting battery which provides the force field which holds the intergalactic tyrant Xenu captive in an unspecified mountain here on Earth is not as everlasting as billed, or was perhaps commandeered when the battery went in some vast cosmic remote control.

Two quotes from Tom Cruise’s video (or click here for the entire transcript):

Being a Scientologist, when you drive past an accident, it’s not like anyone else, it’s, you drive past, you know you have to do something about it. You know you are the only one who can really help. That’s what drives me.

We are the authorities on getting people off drugs. We are the authorities on the mind. We are the authorities on improving conditions. Criminon [sic]. We can rehabilitate criminals. We can bring peace and unite cultures. That once you know these tools and you know that they work, it’s not good enough that I’m just doing Ok.

But is this really any more delusional than, for example, the following:

- the Christian belief that Jesus was born of a virgin, rose from the dead after three days, then disappeared again, but will reappear when we least expect it  (NB similar beliefs,  appeared in religions predating Christianity, e.g. see here re other virgin births, and here for other examples of belief in resurrection)

- the Muslim belief that Mohammed was the last prophet and the Koran contains the ultimate truth (since it purports to be the last word of God): pity that the book makes no mention of trains, aeroplanes, computers, keyhole surgery and other modern devices that were brought to us by scientific research.  It is a wonder that adherents of this religion can bring themselves to use such  modern equipment at all.

- the Hindu belief that cows are sacred, the Jewish and Muslim belief that it is wrong to eat pork?

October 31, 2009

President Blair? Non. Gordon Brown’s government interfering politically in science? Oui

Filed under: Politics — Tags: — actuary21c @ 14:21

This week we have had the farce of Tony Blair first of all being spun as the favourite for the post of European President (without the man in question having even made clear that he wanted to stand), then the possibility of this prize being denied him first of all by the inexperienced David Milliband.  Now at last it appears that the leaders of France and Germany have quietly but firmly let it be known that their answer is Non, Nein.  actuary21c is pleased to see that on this occasion at least, there are going to be no EU rewards for failure:  Tony Blair presided over an illusory economic boom based largely on artificially low credit, and took us into a catastrophic war in Iraq based on information that he ought to have known at the time was very suspect (and indeed turned out to be false).

Now we have the news that the UK government has sacked its chief scientific advisor on drugs, on the grounds that they claim that by saying earlier this week that “smoking cannabis created only a ‘relatively small risk’ of psychotic illness and it was actually less harmful than nicotine or alcohol”, he stepped over the line and made a political statement.  On the contrary, according to this BBC article, Gordon Brown seems to have been ignoring scientific advice and making statements that are not supported by the scientific evidence: (the quotes are from Prof. David Nutt, the adviser just sacked)

“Gordon Brown comes into office and soon after that he starts saying absurd things like cannabis is lethal… it has to be a Class B drug. He has made his mind up.

“We went back, we looked at the evidence, we said, ‘No, no, there is no extra evidence of harm, it’s still a Class C drug.’

“He said, ‘Tough, it’s going to be Class B.’”

Prof Nutt said drug laws should not be influenced “petty party politics” and compared them to interest rates, which are set by the Bank of England not the government.

In the same way, he said, an independent committee should be set up to rule on drug classifications.

“There’s no point in having drug laws that are meaningless and arbitrary just because politicians find it useful and expedient occasionally to come down hard on drugs.

“That’s undermining the whole purpose of the drugs laws.”

Alcohol yes, but having no direct experience of using cannabis or nicotine, actuary21c is not qualified to comment as to whether cannabis is indeed less harmful than nicotine or alcohol, but is far more prepared to believe a scientific committee rather than any politician.

October 19, 2009

Berlusconi: “world’s most persecuted man”? no, but surely Italy deserves better

Filed under: Politics — actuary21c @ 13:56

Here are some quotes from this BBC article:

Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi has described himself as the most persecuted person “in the entire history of the world”.

Mr Berlusconi also said he was “the best prime minister we can find today”.

In an impassioned statement, he then mistakenly told reporters he had spent millions of euros on “judges”, before correcting himself to say “lawyers”.

Mr Berlusconi was speaking two days after Italy’s top court lifted a law granting him immunity while in office.

Correspondents say the Constitutional Court’s ruling means the 73-year-old billionaire will probably have to face a number of trials for corruption and bribery within months.

… Mr Berlusconi declared “I am without doubt the person who’s been the most persecuted in the entire history of the world and the history of man.”

Given that the gaffe-prone Italian premier has also twice described US President Barack Obama as “suntanned”, it looks as if Mr Belusconi’s self judgement is wide of the mark: instead of being the most persecuted man in the world, other adjectives come to mind.  Surely Italy deserves better.  And surely it is time to stop outdated concepts in both France and Italy under which the President (in France), and until recently the Prime Minister (in Italy) is immune from prosecution while s/he holds office: no-one should be above the law.

PS this article today adds fuel to the fire:

Italian PM Silvio Berlusconi has come under fire after a TV channel he owns secretly filmed a judge who ruled against him in a bribery case

Update 31 Oct 2009: I mentioned above that in France, the President has enjoyed immunity from prosecution whilst in office.  This BBC article shows how ludicrous this is: former President Jacques Chirac is only now being properly questioned about allegations of corruption during his tenure as Mayor of Paris from 1977 until 1995 when he became President, and 2 years after he stepped down as President to be replaced by Nicolas Sarkozy:

Former French President Jacques Chirac has been ordered to stand trial on corruption charges.
A magistrate ordered the trial over alleged false job contracts dating from Mr Chirac’s time as Paris mayor.
The 76-year-old served as the capital’s mayor from 1977 until he was elected president in 1995.

September 28, 2009

Institute Council election 2009 results: not elected, but many thanks to those who voted for me!

Filed under: Actuarial — Tags: , — actuary21c @ 22:36

I attended the Institute AGM at Staple Inn earlier today, and, unfortunately (or fortunately from your point of view – and from my point of view, I have plenty of other things to be doing!) I was not successful in the election.  I don’t know how many votes I got (because in line with past practice, the detail is not published), but I thank those who voted for me and who supported me very much, and I congratulate the other candidates who were all elected, namely Adrian Baskir, Helen Crofts, Justyn Harding, Malcolm Kemp and Trevor Llanwarne, and wish them all the very best!

September 24, 2009

UK actuarial leaders: where do you stand on the key issue of communications to members and the public?

Filed under: Actuarial — Tags: , , — actuary21c @ 05:47

I have just made this post on the Actuarial Outpost, calling for clarification of what seems to have been the biggest source of strife within the UK actuarial profession over the last 19 months:

What general principles should members of Institute and Faculty Council, and senior staff, follow with regard to communicating with their members and the public?  Until now, the views of many Council members on this have been unknown, and besides, views may have changed in the light of the experience of recent months.  What is clear is that it is time to clarify where individual Council members stand, and to debate the issues so that we can move on, ideally with a consensus on what the appropriate philosophy should be with regard to communications from the leadership.

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